White working-class Americans are generally present in counties with a high percentage of non-college educated people and available service jobs. Predominantly white, working-class Americans make up the largest demographic group of the 50+ population according to US census data. These characteristics paint a clear picture of how things are going for a particular party over a 20-year period with the white working class. Let’s look at 5 counties that fit these specifications: Montmorency (MI), Adams (WI), McKean (PA), Holmes (FL), Clay (AR) to see if the "America First" message appears to resonate with the 50+ working class.
In the analysis, only counties where the white population was greater than 90% of the county were considered. The total percent of non-high school graduates plus the high school graduate population was greater than the population with some college education plus Bachelor or higher-level education. The population in these counties was also predominantly 50+, and service type jobs were the highest percentage of the jobs provided.
Montmorency County in Michigan saw a 19% increase in both elections in 2016 and 2020. That is a 38% gain on President Trump's "America first" message in comparison to Mitt Romney's run for the Republican party. In 2020, Trump did 19% better in this county as compared to 2016. In 2000, the Republican party went from a 57% majority to a 72% majority in 2020. The Democrat party dropped from 43% to the current 28%. Montmorency County, according to the census, is 97% white, 58% of its population non-college educated, and the biggest demographic group of its population over 50. 42% of the jobs are in the service sector, which is the highest employer. However, in 2008 this county saw the highest percentage of votes for the Democrat party for President Obama at 45%. The whitest, least educated, older generation voted by highest percent in 20 years for the Democrat party's first black presidential candidate. This observation poses a serious challenge to the whole discussion of less educated and older whites being racist. Though it is a small county of 9000+ people, it perfectly fits the demographic group that the study was targeted towards. The troubling factor for the Democrat party is that Montmorency shows that the people who have left the party in 2016, did not return back in 2020, because they lost more than 2016.
In Adams County, Wisconsin the Republican party saw a gain of 29% in 2016 and another 23% in 2020 on President Trump's "America First" message, just like Montmorency, MI. He got 53% of the vote in 2016 and 62% of the vote in 2020. The Democrats dropped from 57% in 2008 to 34% in 2020. Adams County, according to the census, is 91% white, 54% of its population non-college educated, and the biggest demographic group of its population over 50. 41% of the jobs are in the service sector, which is the highest employer. President Obama, carried this county twice with 58% of the votes in 2008 and his support dropped to 54% of the votes in 2012. Just like Montmorency, MI, the whitest, least educated, older generation voted by highest percent in 20 years for the Democrat party's first black presidential candidate. Again, this observation challenges the idea that less educated and older whites are racist.
In Blair County, Pennsylvania, the Republican party saw a gain of 17% in 2016 and another 16% in 2020 on President Trump's "America First" message, just like in Adams County (WI) and Montmorency County (MI). Blair has been a Republican County for 20 years, voting 63 - 65% Republican. But President Trump increased Republican votes to 71% in 2016 and 72% in 2020. The Democrats, usually in the 33 - 37% range, earned only 24% of the votes in 2020. Blair is also 3 times bigger than Adams and Montmorency County, and we see the same trend in even larger population sizes. This data strengthens the claims that the 50+ white working class have taken to President Trump’s message. Blair County, according to the census, is 96% white, 54% of its population is non-college educated, and the biggest demographic group of its population over 50 years old. 46% of the jobs are in the service sector, which is the highest employer. Another troubling trend for the Democrat party to observe, with Blair County (PA), is that counties that are RED (Republican) are turning more RED (Republican). This could mean 2 things, either new people are now coming into the voting for them or the worst possible scenario for Democrats is that people are switching from the Democrat party to the Republican party. President Obama received the highest percent of votes by any Democrat since 2000 in Blair County. He got 37% votes in 2008, the highest number of votes any Democrat Presidential candidate received while his support did drop to 33% votes in 2012. In a county with a bigger population, we see the same observation as the other 2. This observation poses serious challenges to the speculation that less educated older whites are racist.
Holmes County in Florida saw an 8% increase in both elections in 2016 and 2020. That is a 16% gain on President Trump's "America first" message in comparison to Mitt Romney's 2012 run. Trump 2020 did 8% better among this county as compared to 2016. Holmes (FL), like Blair (PA) has been a Republican County for 20 years, but it has been steadily growing more and more Republican since 2000. In 2000, the Republican party got 69% of the vote, improving to 85% in 2012. President Trumps improved it to 87% in 2016 and 90% of the votes in 2020. In 20 years, the Democrats went from 30% of the votes down to 10% in 2020. Blair County also is 3 times bigger than Adams, and Montmorency, and we see the same trend in even larger population sizes. This strengthens the claims that the 50+ white working class have taken to President Trump’s message. Holmes County, according to the census, is 88% white, 62% of its population non-college educated, and the biggest demographic group of its population is over 50 years old. 40% of the jobs are in the service sector, which is the highest employer. The same troubling trend in Blair (PA) for the Democrat party is observed in Holmes (FL), where the counties that are RED (Republican) are turning more RED (Republican). This could mean 2 things, either new people are now coming into the voting for them or, again, the worst possible scenario for Democrats is that people are switching from the Democrat party to the Republican party.
Clay County in Arkansas is a real eye opener for the Democrat Party. This tiny county was Blue in 2000. How Blue was Clay (AR)? Vice President Al Gore won this county with 60% of the votes. Clay County has been turning progressively RED (Republican leaning) ever since. In 2020, 80% of the vote went to the Republican party which is a huge 80% swing to the right within the past 20 years. The chart above illustrates the downward trend of the Democrat party, showing that more people decide to vote against the party with each election cycle. President Clinton is from this state. In 2016 and 2020, the Republican party saw a 17% and 8% increase respectively on President Trump's "America first" message in comparison to Mitt Romney's 2012 run. Trump 2020 did 8% better among this county than in 2016. Clay (AK), like Blair (PA) has been steadily growing more and more Republican since 2000. Clay, according to the census, is 96% white, 60% of its population non-college educated, and the biggest demographic group of its population over 50 years old, but barely. The 25-30 age group is catching up with the over 50 population group in size. 38% of the jobs are in the service sector, which is the highest employer.
Looking at these 5 counties, which are similar if not almost the same, one can clearly see the white working class are now strongly in the Republican camp because of the America First message that President Trump has been promoting. Countary to the "America First" as one can see in counties like Clay (PA) which turned from BLUE to RED. Also, more counties like Blair (PA), Holmes (FL), and Adams (WI) are turning more and more RED as well.
