This fall, there will be candidates on the ballots in almost every state who agree with former President Donald Trump's false claims that the 2020 election was fixed. FiveThirtyEight used news articles, debate videos, campaign materials, and social media to get in touch with every Republican nominee for the House, Senate, governor, secretary of state, and attorney general to find out what they thought about the 2020 election.
Completely colored states have at least one election denial standing for a statewide office (governor, senator, secretary of state, or attorney general); partially colored states show election deniers on the ballot by the district.
There are several election denialists on the ballot. We uncovered 199 Republican nominees running for office who FULLY DENIED the legitimacy of the 2020 election. These candidates either said in no uncertain terms that Trump's election was stolen or took legal steps to change the results, like voting not to certify election results or joining a lawsuit to get the election thrown out.
Furthermore, 62 candidates RAISED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE RESULTS OF THE 2020 ELECTION. These candidates have not gone so far as to expressly state that the election was stolen or to seek legal action. There were 117 candidates whose views on the 2020 election we were unable to identify. When asked explicitly, they either had NO COMMENT on the 2020 election or AVOIDED ANSWERING. Action to overturn it.
However, they have not declared the election to be valid. In fact, they have raised concerns about possible fraud. However, not all Republicans running support Trump's accusations. There are 74 people who have FULLY ACCEPTED the results of the 2020 election, while another 88 have ACCEPTED WITH RESERVATIONS, indicating that they believe President Biden won but have reservations about the election's integrity. Many of these election deniers appear to be winning in the House. The most recent data show that FiveThirtyEight's 2022 midterm election estimate that 118 election deniers and eight election doubters have a 95 percent probability of winning. Several other candidates who have been denied the election are running for office.
However, there will be significantly fewer election skeptics in the Senate. Only three election doubters are solid bets to join the seven senators not seeking reelection who protested the 2020 election's certification. However, a few more have a legitimate chance of winning. More election doubters are likely to win governorships. At least two election denials and four election doubters will be sworn in as governors next year. We also can't rule out election deniers becoming governors in key states like Arizona and Pennsylvania.
We do not foresee elections for attorney general or secretary of state, But there are seven people running for attorney general and seven running for secretary of state who don't believe in the election. The position that controls election administration in the majority of states. Indeed, an election denier winning and assuming office is more than just a symbolic issue. A secretary of state who believes an election was rigged may refuse to certify it. An election-denying governor may attempt to submit electoral votes that violate popular desire. And senators and representatives who oppose elections could vote to count such electoral votes. The election in 2022 will determine how many of these candidates get that opportunity.
