Counties like Tulare(67%), Colusa(61%), Madera (59%), Kings(57%), Kern(55%), Hispanic population are the biggest population group in the state of California. Taking a closer look at the how these counties were trending in the last 20 years trend in these counties should give a pretty good idea about the Hispanic voters party preference and the probability of them to vote "Yes". The next question to ask if, these counties are voting Republican, would the flip sides to vote for Governor Newsom.
Tulare, CA
Tulare (CA) is 67% hispanic, with a younger population, according to the Census data. In 2020, this county voted Republican by the highest numbers in 20 years. President Trump increased his numbers from 2016 by 18K votes to 75K. This shows Trump's was more popular among the Hispanic population or another way to look at it would be that more Hispanics voted for a Republican candidate that the previous election before. Tulare has been a Republican county for the 20 years. 2016 primary, President Trump 23K (80%) votes also points out Trump's message was well received over hispanic candidate Ted Cruz 2K (10%) who got only 10% and that continued in 2020 Republican Primary where in an inconsequential election 35K people voted for him which shows the enthusiasm for their candidate. In 2016, Mrs. Hillary Clinton only got 13K & Bernie Sanders 10K, in 2020 primary, President Joe Biden got only 7K and Senator Sanders got 10K votes. Trump got 60% of the overall vote when combine it with the Democrat votes. Trump beat the democrats in Tulare in an election that did not matter for him, but the Democrats in do-or-die election only were unable to rally the Hispanics heavy population to come vote for them. This is a clear indication by the 2020 primary election, Califronia hispanic population were voting for Trump. However, in the general elections, the Democrats, close the 20% primary vote difference gap to 8% in Tulare. The Democrats were able to rectify their lack luster Primary performance to increase votes to 65K, while Trump got 75K. Biden's performance beat President Obama's 2008 performance by 20K more votes. There were 20K people in Tulare, who thought President Biden was a better candidate than President Obama was in 2008. This increase in Tulare for the democrats, between the primary to general will need a deeper dive to figure out what caused this drastic increase as the Primary elections showed no Democrat Voter enthusiam unlike Trump's were people came in droves to vote for him in 2020's inconsequential primary. But more importantly, will these Hispanic voters show up for Larry Elder or any other candidate to Vote "Yes"? The votes are there for Larry Elder, the question is will they show up for him or any other candidate?
Colusa , CA
Colusa(CA) is 61% hispanic, with a younger population,just like Tulare, however much smaller in size than Tulare according to the Census data. In Colusa, In 2016, President Trump got 83% of the votes among the Republican candidates, and if combine all the Presidential candidates including the Democrats, he got the highest votes % of 46%, with Mrs Clinton and Senator Sanders at 22%. Trump got more votes than the 2 front running candidates together in Colusa. In 2020 primary, Trump increased his margin 62% against President Biden and Sen. Sanders. We see the same trend as in Tulare, his popularity rises among the Hispanic heavy counties, where they come out to vote for Trump in an inconsequential election more than the Democrat's in this county show up to vote for their candidates. In the general elections, unlike in Tulare, in this small county, the vote % difference between Trump and Biden is 17%, almost double that of Tulare, CA. President Biden did 2% better than 2008 President Obama's performance.
Madera, CA
Madera(CA) is 59% hispanic, with a younger population,just like Tulare, however according to the Census data. In Colusa, In 2016, President Trump got 78% of the votes among the Republican candidates, and if combine all the Presidential candidates including the Democrats, he got the highest votes % of 42%, with Mrs Clinton and Senator Sanders at 24% and 20%. Trump got more votes than the 2 front running candidates together in Colusa. In 2020 primary, Trump increased his margin 61% against President Biden and Sen. Sanders. We see the same trend as in Tulare, his popularity rises among the Hispanic heavy counties, where they come out to vote for Trump in an inconsequential election more than the Democrat's in this county show up to vote for their candidates. In the general elections, unlike in Tulare, the vote % difference between Trump and Biden is 11%, almost double that of Tulare, CA. President Biden did 2% better than 2008 President Obama's performance.
Kings, CA
Madera(CA) is 57% hispanic, with a younger population,just like Tulare, however according to the Census data. In Colusa, In 2016, President Trump got 80% of the votes among the Republican candidates, and if combine all the Presidential candidates including the Democrats, he got the highest votes % of 45%, with Mrs Clinton and Senator Sanders at 25% and 20%. Trump got more votes than the 2 front running candidates together in Colusa. In 2020 primary, Trump increased his margin 62% against President Biden and Sen. Sanders. We see the same trend as in Tulare, his popularity rises among the Hispanic heavy counties, where they come out to vote for Trump in an inconsequential election more than the Democrat's in this county show up to vote for their candidates. In the general elections, unlike in Tulare, the vote % difference between Trump and Biden is 11%, almost double that of Tulare, CA. President Biden did 2% better than 2008 President Obama's performance.
Kern, CA
Madera(CA) is 55% hispanic, with a younger population,just like Tulare, however according to the Census data. In Colusa, In 2016, President Trump got 80% of the votes among the Republican candidates, and if combine all the Presidential candidates including the Democrats, he got the highest votes % of 75%, with Mrs Clinton and Senator Sanders at 25% and 20%. Trump got more votes than the 2 front running candidates together in Colusa. In 2020 primary, Trump increased his margin 62% against President Biden and Sen. Sanders. We see the same trend as in Tulare, his popularity rises among the Hispanic heavy counties, where they come out to vote for Trump in an inconsequential election more than the Democrat's in this county show up to vote for their candidates. In the general elections, unlike in Tulare, the vote % difference between Trump and Biden is 5%, almost double that of Tulare, CA. President Biden did 2% better than 2008 President Obama's performance.
Larry Elder has a great potential to win this recall if the portion of Hispanic voters show up like the way the showed up to vote for Trump. How many of this group will break for Gov. Newsom, where the border, crime and lockdowns is in line with his approach and vote NO needs to be seen. Based on the Trumps 2016 rise to popularity and gains in 2020 in these county in the primaries ONLY shows does not line up with Democratic party. How many of them will vote "YES"based on 2020 elections (Primary & General) is to be seen?
However, there is the general elections, numbers which shows only a smaller difference. A deep dive needs to be performed on identifying these general election Democrat voters, who show up only for general elections both in 2016 and 2020. For this a greater granularity of data needs to be used, maybe at the precinct level to see where the vote gains show up.
Also post election analysis should also give a pretty good idea on where Gov Newsom support came from and how well Larry Elder performed compared to the others.
