Comparing 2016's Hillary Clinton Primary Votes to V.P Joe Biden's 2020 votes might give an insight into how popular is compared to her in the battle ground states. Plotting the difference in all these states gives an idea on how things could based on it. Read TFN's Detailed 2016 Primary and General election story.
Comparing 2016's Hillary Clinton Primary Votes to V.P Joe Biden's 2020 votes might give an insight into how popular is compared to her in the battle ground states. Plotting the difference in all these states gives an idea on how things could based on it. Read TFN's Detailed 2016 Primary and General election story.
When comparing the vote difference across all the states, Joe Biden 2020 votes was less by 1.86 than Mrs. Clinton in 2016 Primary. This is a marginal difference., however when compared to other states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin where the difference was over 25% or better.
In the key Miami-Dade & Osceola county, 40% of the population are central & south American hispanic population. Broward has a 50% non-white population made of almost equal amounts of black and hispanic population. The age distribution shows that majority of its population 30-55 years range. All 3 counties with sizeable hispanic population, Joe Biden did not as well as Hillary Clinton.
Miami Dade Demographics Make up
However, in the county of Sarasota, which is predominantly, white and high percentage of its population above 50, he did the better when compared to Mrs. Clinton.
The Democratic party has been winning less and less counties in Florida since President Obama's epic win 2008 with 15 counties, droping to 12 in 2012 and are now in 2016 to 9 lower than 2000 which as 16 when Al Gore almost won. There were 3 different candidates during these 12 years, as the popularity of the party seems to be centered are less and less counties.
The Republican party on the other hand has been gaining the counties it has been winning in Florida with the lowest number of counties won in 2000 which was 51, and its highest in 2016 when President Trump won 58 counties.
In 2020 Miami-Dade Primary, V.P Biden received 95K vs Clinton's 130K. President Trump's 2020 total votes in an incumbent re-election year, was 68K as compared to 40K in 2016. Unlike 2016, when there were plenty of candidates, in 2020 there were less candidates to divy up the votes. Senator Sanders dropped from 42K in 2016 to 35K in 2020 in Miami-Dade county. The total democrat votes dropped by 30K and Republican votes dropped by 70K as an incumbent year unlike in 2016.
In 2020 Broward Primary, V.P Biden received 122K vs Clinton's 132K. President Trump's 2020 total votes in an incumbent re-election year, was 52K as compared to 40K in 2016. Unlike 2016, when there were plenty of candidates, in 2020 there were less candidates to divy up the votes. Senator Sanders dropped from 48K in 2016 to 35K in 2020 in Broward county. The total democrat votes dropped by 40K and Republican votes dropped by 50K as an incumbent year unlike in 2016.
In 2020 Osceola Primary, V.P Biden received 135K vs Clinton's 165K. President Trump's 2020 total votes in an incumbent re-election year, was 13K as compared to 10K in 2016. Unlike 2016, when there were plenty of candidates, in 2020 there were less candidates to divy up the votes. Senator Sanders got almost the same 7K in 2016 and 2020 in Osceola county. The total democrat votes dropped by 30K and Republican votes dropped by 30K as an incumbent year unlike in 2016.
In 2020 Sarasota Primary, V.P Biden received 31K vs Clinton's 26K. President Trump's 2020 total votes in an incumbent re-election year, was 34K as compared to 37K in 2016. Unlike 2016, when there were plenty of candidates, in 2020 there were less candidates to divy up the votes. Senator Sanders dropped from 15K in 2016 to 10K 2020 in Sarasota county. The total democrat votes remained the same showing interest remained same in the county with a high percentage of senior voters and Republican votes dropped by 30K as an incumbent year unlike in 2016.
Breakdown of the counties based on the job classification for the county. For example, the Taylor county is a manufacturing county, which President Trump won by a margin of 50 points over Mrs. Clinton. Figuring out how, counties votes based on the majority jobs held by its citizens could be a good indication of how the election would go.
The 2020 Primary chart above shows the percent vote comparison between a 3 way race between President Trump, V.P Joe Biden and Senator Sanders where you have the enthusiasm for the candidate or the party based on the number of primary votes in the county.
Here are the actual number of votes in the primary for each candidate and then a combination of the 2 Democratic front runners as compared to President Trump.
